Forecast Update Washes Away Worst Fears

In the forecast from May 9 the guesstimates for Sat/Sun had 100 year flood levels.

In the May 10 forecast these figures have changed downward into the 20 year levels. Of course these are merely forecasts and should not keep you from taking all precautions – the forecast on the 11th might resurrect those fears.

RDKB.com has links to more data. This forecast is from http://bcrfc.env.gov.bc.ca/freshet/clever/08NN002.PDF
Real time data can be found at http://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/report/real_time_e.html?stn=08NN002

forecast changes

The May 11 forecast shows changes, back upwards to some degree but still not as dire as the May 9th forecast. See the numbers in the graphic on the right.

The thing to keep in mind is these are best  guesstimates and as time and conditions change so will the forecasts. Also, forecasts are always more accurate the closer in time to the forecast date; conversely the further in the future the forecast the less likely it will reflect reality. The graphic below shows a more full picture of these forecast changes.

 

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